Canadian Weather Community Forums

This is an article I read some time ago. Considering the 'state of affairs' today I thought I would post this link.
The article is not all that long.

http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/a...article/7/

Do you think the author has valid points?
Is this a gloom scenario or actually plausible?

Thanks for that, Ron - an interesting read. He clearly states what I have been trying to say for some time - that industrialized nations need to prepare for life after oil. It's unbelievable how many people think that the oil will go on almost forever, that there are vast reserves yet to be discovered that will fulfill our needs for generations to come, so why worry? Regardless of the quantity of proven reserves of fossil fuels, and how much remains to be discovered, there is a big problem - we have what we have, and no more. Fossil fuels are non-renewable, and our consumption of them increases daily. In the long term it really makes no difference how many barrels of oil or cubic feet of natural gas are yet to be discovered - finding large deposits of fossil fuels only delays the inevitable - one day, they will be gone, and then what?

Fortunately, all is not lost or at least it shouldn't be if we care to think ahead a bit. Oil and gas will still be around for a while yet, so we have some time to work on developing new technologies. I don't know what our energy of the future will be - if I did, I would be a very wealthy man, but at least we have an opportunity to prepare for the future. I just hope the opportunity isn't squandered.

Exactly Keith fossil fuel will not go on forever. In fact some of the statistics are pointing in the direction we may have already passed the mid point and are on the down hill side.
Considering the industrialization and population of the globe at the turn of the century it took a long relative time to get to peak usage.
One has to just look around a consumption now to realize that the down hill side will be exponentially faster than the last one hundred years uphill climb.

There appears to be no quick fixes on the horizon. No massive fuel reserves and no eureka discoveries in physics. On top of this, all the avenues with alternatives do not look all that good.
Hydrogen is a pipe dream. It has to be produced and requires electricity to produce in any quantities. The argument is it is good for the environment. However, I think this is an assumption and has to stay an assumption until tested. Unfortunately can only be tested under actual conditions. Secondly a good part of the auto pollution will only be transferred from the car to the power plant.
The same rule applies to the electric “battery” car. The cars have to be charged if any amount of driving is done. Again, all that is accomplished is transferring to energy requirement to the power plants. There is probably a slight net gain here in reducing pollution, but I doubt if it is earth shaking.

Then one has to remember that oil is also used for much more than just heating, cooling and autos. Plastics, pharmaceuticals, transportation of just about all modes, agriculture, chemical industry. In many of the needs there are no substitutes for oil base products.

Solar and wind are great, however at the rate we consume energy these two modes will not even dent the surface of the requirements.


Back as far as the industrial revolution when the fossil fuel factories were popping up like daises some critics said there was no way such expansion could last. They were basically laughed out of town and call idiots. Well, I know the old metaphor, who the last laugh may be on.

Then in the 70s the writing was on the wall again. The fuel shortages, price of gas and line-ups at service stations.
There was feeble attempt to produce small cars and go more energy efficient. However, after things stabilize and the future looked good almost over night the large cars and truck appeared on the roads again. A lot of the energy retrofit for different users went right out the window.

I have no doubt what so ever if something happened to assure cheap energy for the next seventy years or so (which in all probability it won’t) we would go back to five thousand square foot houses and drive 12 cylinder SUVs.
The attitude being we will live the good life now and deal with it in seventy years.

As the Asian continent comes into the ‘modern age’ this will only tax the system much more.
They are becoming economical quite strong and will be better prepared economical to deal with th energy problem thus putting even more pressure on the west.


We will be place in a feed back loop.

Although at the end of the line the same energy fate awaits them.

Personally I think we are in deep trouble, more so than we think and as time goes on it will become more apparent. We just don’t seem to learn from past mistakes and history.

In retrospect if you look back at historical fallen Empires, from the Greeks, Athenians, Romans.... to the present it is obvious there were measures they could have take to prevent it. But, it would have required absolute drastic changes in their ideologies and societies which they were not prepared to do. So, they suffered the consequence. Of course it was not fossil fuel that led to their demise but it could have as easily been.

I think we are on the same road. The price of fuel will continue to rise due to both greed and supply and demand. As time goes on supply will drop. We are taking oil out but no new stuff is being made. Every day there is more and more demand so more comes out this year than last year. It’s not a case of two steps forward and one step back, it is simply no steps forward and three steps back.

All things being equal, considering fuel usage and modern society I think the first industry that will go flat on it’s face is the airline industry. I don’t mean one or two large airlines, I mean the industry. If and when this happens it will be a dire warning sign the life style we have enjoyed in the west may be over.

When it energy crisis hit in full force in years to come there will have to be some drastic measures take on a global basis and as I said some will have to be drastic.
If not we will be back into the dark ages.

Nobody likes to hear these things, I don’t like to hear them much less write about them, but that won’t make it go away.

I’m not religious, so there is no Armageddon after tones in this, I am not an environmentalist, so there is no scaling smoke stacks with banners, I am not a we will all go to hell in a hand basket pessimist. I’m just a stupid home sapien trying to look at the world with simple logic.
What I see is not good at all. We are living close to the edge and quickly running out of options.
Although nothing is etched in granite and things can change.

Ron

Great posts guys and it sure gives a person lots to think about! I don't know where to begin about this, the whole topic has consumed my mind since I read that link Ron! But some thoughts have been rolling around: I think the head of steam China has been building economically will take a big hit from this, especially if it starts costing to much to transport thier goods to consumers elsewhere around the world, things will start to look pretty ugly there (and at Walmart). The same could be said for Alberta one day, they had better enjoy thier boom times and start thinking about what's next for thier economy in the second half of this century. Once the oil runs out what is left there?

Airlines have 'never faced a darker future:' report
Updated Fri. Jun. 13 2008 10:10 AM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

The skyrocketing price of oil has landed the airline industry in the midst of a "full-blown crisis," according to a report published by a U.S. travel industry consumer group.

The dire report conducted by AirlineForecasts, LLC, for the Business Travel Coalition (BTC)claims the industry has "never faced a darker future." It coincides with news from two more North American airlines that have announced they will begin charging for the first piece of checked luggage.

United Airlines and U.S. Airways will start charging customers US$15 for the first checked bag, a move that follows similar decisions in the past few months by other American and Canadian airlines that have announced charges for passengers checking in first or second pieces of luggage.

The airlines have said high fuel costs have cut into their bottom lines and substantially increased their costs.

"As a consequence of the skyrocketing cost of oil, the U.S. commercial aviation industry is in full-blown crisis and heading toward a catastrophe," said the BTC report.

The report notes that if oil continues to hover around the US$130 mark, then "all major legacy airlines will be in default on various debt covenants by the end of 2008 or early 2009."

A business analyst told CTV.ca, there is little doubt the industry is hurting both in Canada and the U.S. But Joe D'Cruz, a management professor at the University of Toronto, said Canadian airlines are in "reasonably good shape."

"In Canada, the industry is insulated by a couple of things," D'Cruz told CTV.ca, noting that the overall Canadian economy is in better shape than its American counterpart.

"We (also) don't have the intense (airline) competition. There is competition, but the airlines refrain from destructive competition. (And they) seem to pass on increases in high oil prices to travelers. They are hurting, but they are not in a disastrous shape."

D'Cruz said that even in the U.S., there have been much worse times for the industry.

"For example, after the dot-com bust in the 1990s -- when business travel was the main profit engine of the industry -- that era was much worse than the current era."

The BTC report notes that consumers will continue to face rising air travel costs in the coming months. The study said that industry fares in the U.S. will have to increase at least 20 per cent to cover the increased fuel costs.

"Airlines can attempt to radically shrink the industry," according to the study, but it notes that is unlikely due to the competitive nature of the business.

"Instead, absent direct policy intervention, the likelihood is that there will be more bankruptcies, including some liquidations."

The study recommends that government regulators and politicians take action, noting that in the coming weeks, BTC will make specific recommendations.

link

Just a very brief post from me on this , my boss showed me and article that stated that for Air Canada's 777 , $68,000 fuel cost from Toronto to Heathrow. How long does anyone think this can keep up ?

Absolutely agree, and this is when we will see the cheap exports from China not so cheap. The import prices will rise.
The second problem I see is the US trade deficit. It is just mind boggling. It is almost to a point that China is financing the US.
If and when they start to experience hard times and dump US dollars it will throw this economy into a spiral.
The thing is, they are involved in this energy crunch as well as us and as energy get scarce they will pull all the stops and will probably be in a better position to do so than us.

Thanks for the Airline post.
Reason I mentioned that was several weeks ago I was having a discussion with a planner type centered around this topic. The general consensus was because of the price of fuel and the amount used the Airline industry would be the first to (excuse the pun) come down if any such thing happened.
Second would be the transportation trucking industry.
We we sort of discussing the industries rather than just companies.

This whole mess could be be eleviated in the short term with OPEC increasing output. But these guys are not stupid they are beginning to see the bottom of the pot and will stretch the time element.
Hate to say it but if and when the worse comes to supply they will sell to the highest bidder.
LOL, that could start some fireworks.

Thing is there are zettajoules of energy around be we can only convert a fraction of this amount. We just use too much too fast.
Then to make matters worse we have six billion plus on the planet with a population growing almost exponentially.

What a mess we are handing over to our kids to deal with.

Reminds me of a conversation I had many years ago at coffee break. I was discussing the perils of the future if people did not smarten up. The person (former friend) sitting across for me asked how long this should take. At that time I thought and said probably a hundred years. The answer I got back, " what the f do I care what happens in a hundred years".
That totally stunned me.
I was surprised to find that many held this train of thought.