06-24-2008, 04:24 AM
When Typhoon Fengshen formed as a TD about 6 days ago in the western pacific, almost all weather agencies predicted the storm would track NW initially then recurve to NE very soon at about 132E. As time passed, the forecast track kept shifting west but almost all the offical forecasts continued to call for recurvature in the next day or so, only a few weather fans on the internet expressed doubt that the subtropical ridge to the north of the storm showed little signs of weakening so the western component cannot be ignored. Now 5 days later, the storm has not recurved as most had predicted, the storm now continued to move as west as 115.8E, almost 1600km more west than what the numerical model has been suggesting. This is quite interesting.