07-02-2008, 05:52 PM
07-02-2008, 09:13 PM
It could develop, but the odds of it affecting anyone are against it - climatologically anyway.
07-03-2008, 11:02 AM
I changed the title of the thread as it's been updated to a TD. Forcasters are saying it will become a hurricane in the next 5 days.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 030859
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG
BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES ARE
ALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK
AGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT.
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE
TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL
THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS
THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS KEEP A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE FIVE MODELS ABOVE BUT JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THAT
CONSENSUS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS NEAR THIS SYSTEM...SO THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE COOLER WATERS AND MORE
STABLE AIR IN ITS PATH. AFTER ABOUT 24 HR ON THE NHC TRACK...SSTS
DROP BELOW 26C AND STAY BELOW THAT THRESHOLD FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
THEREAFTER SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING STRENGTHENING
AT THE START AND END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN BETWEEN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COOLEST SSTS. THE
SHIPS/GFDL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MAKING IT A HURRICANE WITHIN 5 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 12.6N 22.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 13.0N 24.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 13.8N 27.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 14.7N 30.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 40.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 51.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT42 KNHC 030859
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG
BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES ARE
ALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK
AGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT.
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE
TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL
THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS
THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS KEEP A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE FIVE MODELS ABOVE BUT JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THAT
CONSENSUS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS NEAR THIS SYSTEM...SO THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE COOLER WATERS AND MORE
STABLE AIR IN ITS PATH. AFTER ABOUT 24 HR ON THE NHC TRACK...SSTS
DROP BELOW 26C AND STAY BELOW THAT THRESHOLD FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
THEREAFTER SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING STRENGTHENING
AT THE START AND END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN BETWEEN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COOLEST SSTS. THE
SHIPS/GFDL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MAKING IT A HURRICANE WITHIN 5 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 12.6N 22.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 13.0N 24.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 13.8N 27.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 14.7N 30.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 40.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 51.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
07-03-2008, 05:35 PM
I changed the title again since it has become a Tropical Storm (Bertha)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA...1454.shtml
Sheila akaJW
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA...1454.shtml
Sheila akaJW
07-05-2008, 10:46 AM
It now looks like Bertha will not recurve quickly like many storms that form in this area do - especially this early in the season. It could very well come close to the United States and maybe landfall there. This should certainly be an interesting storm to track.
07-07-2008, 09:31 PM
She is now a hurricane - a cat 2 one at that. It looks very healthy on satellite right now. Almost all models show a recurve now, though Bermuda should keep an eye on it though.
Edit: Up to cat 3 status now - first major hurricane of the season.
Edit: Up to cat 3 status now - first major hurricane of the season.
07-07-2008, 09:46 PM
Very clear eye. Bermuda definently should look out. Although they may not take a direct hit.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 072035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008
...BERTHA STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 730 MILES...
1175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1150 MILES...1855 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
000
WTNT42 KNHC 072035
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008
BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE NOW SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0 BUT
OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0 FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT MAKING BERTHA A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
BERTHA'S INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE
DIFFICULTIES OF FORECASTING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES. IN THE
SHORT-TERM...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE
PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL CYCLES. AS A RESULT...SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. IN A DAY OR TWO...THE GFS
MODEL STILL INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH BASE THEIR SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM THE
GFS...SHOW WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...BOTH INDICATIONS
THAT THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. SINCE BERTHA COULD BE WOBBLING...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE IS 300/10. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME WEAK LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...IT IS STILL WAY TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA WILL AFFECT BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 20.1N 52.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.8N 53.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 55.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 22.9N 57.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 59.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 26.5N 61.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 62.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 31.5N 62.5W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
000
WTNT32 KNHC 072035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008
...BERTHA STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 730 MILES...
1175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1150 MILES...1855 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
000
WTNT42 KNHC 072035
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008
BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE NOW SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0 BUT
OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0 FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT MAKING BERTHA A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
BERTHA'S INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE
DIFFICULTIES OF FORECASTING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES. IN THE
SHORT-TERM...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE
PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL CYCLES. AS A RESULT...SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. IN A DAY OR TWO...THE GFS
MODEL STILL INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH BASE THEIR SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM THE
GFS...SHOW WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...BOTH INDICATIONS
THAT THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. SINCE BERTHA COULD BE WOBBLING...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE IS 300/10. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME WEAK LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...IT IS STILL WAY TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA WILL AFFECT BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 20.1N 52.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.8N 53.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 55.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 22.9N 57.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 59.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 26.5N 61.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 62.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 31.5N 62.5W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
07-08-2008, 12:08 AM
She certainly has developed quickly. Still watching!
Sheila akaJW
Sheila akaJW
akajw Wrote:
07-08-2008, 12:19 AM
Here is an excellent visible satellite shot of Bertha:
07-08-2008, 12:20 AM
nor`easter Wrote:
Here is an excellent visible satellite shot of Bertha:
Beautiful!
Sheila akaJW
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