Canadian Weather: Active severe weather season for the Prairies? - Canadian Weather

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Active severe weather season for the Prairies? Rate Topic: -----

#1 User offline   Derek Heide Icon

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Posted 07 June 2010 - 03:22 AM

Model ensembles are agreeing that a strong ridge of high pressure will begin building across the Central and Eastern United States this week. Most summer forecasts I have read seem to converge on a Western trough/Central-East ridge scenario. With the SST's in the Pacific trending towards neutral, I feel that a zonal/SW flow should dominate Western Canada for much of the Summer, allowing a good amount of shortwaves to move quickly across the Southern Prairies. This is very reminiscent of 2005 which was a very active one for the Prairies.

#2 User offline   MDH1 Icon

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Posted 08 June 2010 - 10:58 PM

Eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan will probably see tornadoes in the 15th. Or at least supercells and organized storms. Though I don't expect they'll be too strong, there's almost no cap. The only problem is moisture.

Too bad I'm not out east again for a month...

#3 User offline   Derek Heide Icon

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 02:06 AM

As long as we finally get some 25-30 degree heat. If we're stuck in these colder anomalies, all we can hope for is a few marginal W/NW flow set-ups...

#4 User offline   scottk Icon

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Posted 13 June 2010 - 08:40 PM

The latest medium-range predictions are forecasting a near to slightly above normal end to June for the southern Prairies. One interesting note is the large bubble of high dew points over the US to the east of the Rockies. If a low pressure system were to track far enough north, then that moisture would easily be dragged up onto the Prairies. With the average jet stream flow favouring a moderate western trough, it wouldn't take much to produce severe weather over the next few weeks. However, despite these parameters lining up, nothing is guaranteed. First dates to watch are June 16/17. The track of the system over this time period will help to determine how things may shape up for the rest of June.

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#5 User offline   MDH1 Icon

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Posted 20 June 2010 - 09:44 PM

Well, we'll see if that verifies by tomorrow.

#6 User offline   shaunavon Icon

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Posted 21 June 2010 - 02:28 AM

I'm storm chasing in southern Sask tomorrow, it looks like it might be a very very active day.

#7 User offline   kosh Icon

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Posted 22 June 2010 - 12:23 AM

Keep us posted on your chase day :)
Bob


Cornwall, United Kingdom

"When two Englishmen meet, their first talk is of the weather."

#8 User offline   Relliott Icon

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Posted 23 June 2010 - 12:16 AM

View Postshaunavon, on 20 June 2010 - 11:28 PM, said:

I'm storm chasing in southern Sask tomorrow, it looks like it might be a very very active day.



Yes, keep us posted, and welcome to the board :)

#9 User offline   MDH1 Icon

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Posted 30 June 2010 - 08:43 PM

Looks like an active Canada day for the central prairies tomorrow. If any of you in SK or MB have the day off, take the time to chase this system. SK and MB have about three days in a row where there is an area of mediate to very strong convective energy with lots of present shear and virtually no cap on the first two days.

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