[dmi]

TS Storm Bonnie has formed expected to remain as a TS and is headed into the GOM. Will probably play havoc with the oil spill cleanup.

WTNT43 KNHC 230859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BONNIE
HAS FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF
34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH. FOR NOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BONNIE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS BONNIE PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AN OBSERVING SITE ON STANIEL CAY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 KT.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT BONNIE IS MOVING FASTER AND HAS TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. BONNIE
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING FIRST 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
GUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY FASTER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART FROM THE MORE
WESTWARD INITIAL LOCATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS
REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

THE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF BONNIE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
STRENGTHENING. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF
BONNIE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOWS LITTLE...
IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 24.1N 78.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 25.0N 81.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 26.2N 84.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 27.6N 86.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 28.8N 89.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 31.5N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA

[dmi]

Bonnie downgraded to a depression after crossing southern Florida. Conditions for strengthening not great.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 232032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED
STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING
BONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF
BONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN
THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 84.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[dmi]

Bonnie is all but dead.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 240847
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400
UTC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND
MAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 1013 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND
SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY.

BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/15. BONNIE REMAINS IN A WELL
ESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE
REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY. THAT SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 27.0N 85.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 28.0N 87.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 29.4N 89.7W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1800Z 30.8N 91.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0600Z 32.1N 92.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/0600Z 35.0N 93.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[dmi]

...... and it's dead.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 242034
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
DEGENERATED INTO AN AREA LOW PRESSURE. LITTLE OR NO WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW RAINBANDS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WHICH ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS
AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER
AND DISSIPATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 28.5N 87.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 25/0600Z 29.5N 89.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 91.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[6254]

Besides the wind shear, the upper level confluence, which can be seen in the 200mb map, is another blame.