[dmi]

The third storm of the season was named this afternoon.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 192055
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
AND COVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM
TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS ALSO SHOW
THE SYSTEM AS A SYMMETRIC WARM CORE...ALBEIT SHALLOW...SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT IS BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA
AND A SHIP THAT REPORTED 35-KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/7. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF
LOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO HOW SHARP THE CYCLONE
TURNS NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
CHRIS TRAVERSES THE MARGINALLY WARM WATERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS IN
36-48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW STRENGTHENING AS
A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN 3 TO 4
DAYS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

ONLY TWICE BEFORE...IN 1887 AND 1959...HAS THE THIRD STORM OF THE
SEASON FORMED EARLIER THAN THIS DATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 39.3N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 39.2N 54.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 39.5N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 40.9N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 43.3N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 45.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$
FORECASTER BROWN

[dmi]

Chris is now a hurricane.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 211454
TCDAT3

HURRICANE CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
1100 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012

CHRIS HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE FEATURE THIS MORNING...AND IN FACT THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED. A 1111Z SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO
INDICATED A SOLID CLOSED RING ON THE 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE.
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED AND THE COLD INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS
ARE -60C TO -70C...RESULTING IN A DVORAK SATELLITE DATA-T ESTIMATES
OF 4.5 AND CONSTRAINED FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CIMSS ADT HAS OBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIED AN EYE SCENE TYPE...THE LAST FEW RAW T-NUMBERS WERE ALSO
4.4 TO 4.5. BASED ON THESE DATA AND CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY
COOL SSTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT...MAKING CHRIS
THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD
OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AT AN
ESTIMATED 050/17. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS THE CYCLONE TURNS
CYCLONICALLY...NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LARGER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. AFTERWARD...CHRIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE LOW IN 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 41.1N 43.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 42.8N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 44.0N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/0000Z 43.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1200Z 42.5N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS