[dmi]

NHC has it headed towards the GOM.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER
ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO
GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[akajw]

Do you have an alternate url for the NHC? It has not been working for me lately.

Sheila

[dmi]

Try this Sheila,

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[dmi]

This afternoon, TD 5 became TS ERNESTO, and is forecasted to be a hurricane early next week.



TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE
IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCH
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 270/19. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS NEAR THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.2N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.6N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.2N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 18.5N 83.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[dmi]

Looks like ERNESTO will pass south of Jamaica as a hurricane Sunday.



TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

CORRECTED TIME OF AMSU PASS IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS INCREASED WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE OUTFLOW HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...AN AMSU PASS
FROM 0549 UTC SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER STRUCTURE IN THE INNER CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A
MUCH SLOWER RATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN
36 HOURS...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GFDL SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN
EARLIER RUNS...BUT THE HWRF AND MUCH OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE REMAIN
WEAKER. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE IV15 CONSENSUS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.1N 67.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.5N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.1N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.3N 79.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 17.5N 83.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 21.5N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[6254]

I thought traditionally, a TC entering from Atlantic to the Eastern Carribean Sea has similar weakening tendency despite what looks like to be favorable conditions.
Any idea the reason(s) in behind?

-------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

DESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1008 MB. I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER. THE SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND ERNESTO WILL
MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH
CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
SINCE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. SHIPS...LGEM AND THE GFDL
FORECAST ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE THE HWRF EITHER
FORECASTS NO CHANGE OR WEAKENING.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS EMBEDDEED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT
TIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN
ERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.8N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.7N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

[6254]

Ernesto still survives and get a second life with a new ID in Pacific Ocean.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERNESTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE
IS VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE
DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY.
THEREFORE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD
OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1700Z 17.5N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.7N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.7N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 18.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$

[6254]

Ernesto in Atlantic -->TD8 in Pacific now becomes Hector

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CYCLONE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT HECTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING THAT CAN OCCUR. AFTER THAT TIME...WHILE THE
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD WEAKEN...HECTOR WILL NEAR VERY
CLOSE TO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS
ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE FORECAST
SIZE OF THE STORM HAS BEEN INCREASED.

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT HECTOR
APPEARS TO BE MOVING 290/11...A BIT FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER. A RIDGE OVER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THAT TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE COULD
WEAKEN AND STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN BY 24 HOURS AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE STORM WILL TURN SOUTH OF WEST...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HECTOR INTERACTING WITH THE ACTIVE ITCZ NEAR MEXICO.
WITH THE MODEL DIVERGENCE...IT IS USUALLY BEST TO STAY NEAR THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC
FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 18.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 18.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 18.4N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE