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TD10 Rate Topic: -----

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Posted 22 August 2012 - 03:29 PM

This low also moved out of Africa on Sunday Aug 19 and quickly became an Invest area before becoming a 100% this morning, now it is TD10

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
1100 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE BOTH 2.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30KT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH THE
DEPRESSION BECOMES INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTERACTIONS WITH EITHER WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND A POSSIBLE HALT IN
INTENSIFICATION. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEARLY IN TANDEM WITH A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT TURNS
MORE QUICKLY. THE HWRF SHOWS A SHALLOWER VORTEX THAT MOVES ON A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 12.4N 36.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.3N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.2N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.2N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 18.5N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 21.8N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 26.0N 64.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
Toronto, Ontario.

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