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Low near 15N 20W Rate Topic: -----

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 03:18 AM

This is not an invest area yet, but should become one in the next few days.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Toronto, Ontario.

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Posted 30 August 2012 - 03:35 AM

6 days after, it is now a 70% low (98L).

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Toronto, Ontario.

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Posted 31 August 2012 - 03:41 AM

98L is now TS Leslie, may recurve before 65W.

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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
LESLIE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
MASS...MOST LIKELY DUE TO LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED 1004 MB AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AS THE CENTER PASSED TO THE NORTH.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. LESLIE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF
OF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO A CUT-OFF LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO BREAK THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVELS...
AND EXTEND FAR ENOUGH VERTICALLY DOWNWARD TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AT
700-850 MB. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AFTER THE 48 HR
POINT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 96 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK GUIDANCE
STARTS TO DIVERGE AT 120 HR REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LESLIE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES...AND BASED ON THIS SPREAD...THE TRACK
FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOTION NEAR THAT
TIME.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LESLIE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SLOW OR HALT
INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A LITTLE
LESS STRENGTHENING THAN FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOST NOTABLY
AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING LESLIE BECOMING A
HURRICANE BY 24 HR AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FROM
72-120 HR.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING VERY LARGE...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT WIND FIELD FORECAST. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN SIZE APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 72 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 14.7N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 15.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 16.7N 51.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.9N 54.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 19.3N 56.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 22.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 29.0N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
Toronto, Ontario.

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