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African low Near 13N 14E Rate Topic: -----

#1 User offline   6254 Icon

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Posted 29 August 2013 - 03:40 PM

This low looks great and may have some development as it moves to the sea in the next day or so.

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800 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM AFTER THE WAVE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
Toronto, Ontario.

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Posted 07 September 2013 - 03:20 AM

Well, this new impressive low looks fine.
Update: This low is now 91L
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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


4. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
Toronto, Ontario.

#3 User offline   Relliott Icon

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Posted 09 September 2013 - 10:00 PM

Thanks for the updates. I see we have TS Humberto now.

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 03:20 PM

And since last night, the forecast track of Humberto has been adjusted a little southward.

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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...
AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THE
STORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS
SINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNER
BAND OF CONVECTION. IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED A MOTION OF 295/8 KT...BUT THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY DUE TO A WEAKENING
AZORES HIGH TO THE NORTH. TWO DEEP-LAYERED LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTH AFRICA...SHOULD STEER HUMBERTO
NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD
NORTH OF HUMBERTO BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WERE
REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.

ONCE THE INNER CORE OF HUMBERTO REORGANIZES...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE STORM REACHES A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HUMBERTO
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...BUT THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IN A DAY OR TWO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD JUST A BIT
BASED ON THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.6N 27.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.3N 28.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 16.6N 29.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 18.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 20.5N 29.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 23.5N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 24.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 25.0N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
Toronto, Ontario.

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