Canadian Weather: Low at African coast - Canadian Weather

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Low at African coast Near 9N 11W Rate Topic: -----

#1 User offline   6254 Icon

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Posted 07 September 2014 - 02:58 AM

As this low moves away from land, there is potential for development for the next few days.
Toronto, Ontario.

#2 User offline   Relliott Icon

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Posted 07 September 2014 - 10:41 PM

View Post6254, on 06 September 2014 - 11:58 PM, said:

As this low moves away from land, there is potential for development for the next few days.


Thanks, please keep us updated on this.

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Posted 11 September 2014 - 03:39 PM

It is now TD06, the upper level may steer the storm away from the coastal area and may not go as far west as 58W.

====================================
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

Satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the
low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic has a well-defined
circulation and organized convective banding near the center. Thus,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data
and the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 310/12. A low-/mid-level ridge north of the
cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to
northwestward for the next 3-4 days. After that, the track
guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between
the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda. There
is a fair amount of spread in the guidance on where this turn should
occur, with the extremes being the Canadian model on the east near
45W and the ECMWF model on the west near 55W. The official forecast
lies close to the model consensus in expecting a more northerly
motion between 51W-53W. The forecast track keeps the cyclone well
away from land for the next 5 days.

The depression is currently in an environment of light vertical
wind shear. The large-scale models forecast some increase
in southerly shear after 24 hours, which should persist through the
end of the forecast period. Despite the shear, the intensity
guidance forecasts slow but steady strengthening. The official
forecast follows this scenario and is a blend of the SHIPS model and
the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.2N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 18.2N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 19.3N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 20.5N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 26.5N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 29.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
Toronto, Ontario.

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