Canadian Weather: Low at 13N 9W - Canadian Weather

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Low at 13N 9W 20% development for this low Rate Topic: -----

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Posted 28 August 2015 - 03:08 AM

Pretty rare to give a 20% for a low that is still inland, let's keep an eye on this one.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

1. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Some slow development of the disturbance will be possible
through the middle of next week while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Toronto, Ontario.

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Posted 29 August 2015 - 05:38 PM

It is now 99L, a 50% low at 10N 18W.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a low pressure area located just off the coast of Africa about
150 miles west of Conakry, Guinea. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
northwestward and then west-northwestward toward the Cape Verde
Islands at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Toronto, Ontario.

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Posted 31 August 2015 - 03:28 PM

It is now Fred and it seems it doesn't last very long.

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HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

Visible satellite pictures and earlier microwave data indicate
that Fred has a well-defined inner core. The outer banding that
was noted yesterday is no longer evident, and the hurricane is quite
compact. A well-defined eye was evident in both a 0904 UTC
SSMIS and 1121 UTC AMSU microwave overpasses. The initial intensity
is raised to 75 kt, which is between the latest objective and
subjective satellite estimates from UW/CIMSS and TAFB, respectively.
Satellite data suggest that the eye of Fred passed just southwest of
Boa Vista Island in the Cape Verde Islands, however the northeastern
eyewall likely moved over a portion of that island just before 1200
UTC this morning.

The sea surface temperatures along the path of Fred are beginning
to decrease, however, the vertical shear is expected to remain quite
low for another 12 hours or so. Little change in strength is
expected today. By Tuesday, Fred will be over SSTS of around 26C
and southwesterly shear is forecast to increase. This should cause
gradual weakening, and a further increase in shear and a drier, more
stable air mass should cause a faster rate of decay after 36 hours.
The tropical cyclone is now forecast to become a tropical depression
in about 4 days, and degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

Fred continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. The hurricane
should maintain a northwestward heading during the next 12 to 24
hours. During this time, the center of Fred is expected to pass over
or very close to the northwestern Cape Verde Islands of Sao Nicolou,
Santa Luzuia, Sao Vicente, and Sao Antao. On Tuesday, a west-
northwestward turn is predicted as a mid-level ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. Fred should then maintain a
west-northwestward heading during the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC track remains on the south side of the guidance
envelope, in best agreement with a consensus of the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

According to the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record, which
begins in 1851, Fred is the first hurricane to pass through the Cape
Verde Islands since 1892. We caution, however, that the database is
less reliable prior to the satellite era (mid 1960s onward).

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 16.4N 23.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.3N 25.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 20.3N 30.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 21.4N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 22.5N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 24.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Toronto, Ontario.

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Posted 31 August 2015 - 10:33 PM

Thank you for the updates.

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