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Another low at 9N 15W Rate Topic: -----

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Posted 04 September 2015 - 03:04 AM

The wind shear ahead is low at the moment, let's keep an eye on this one.

=========================
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

1. A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has
the potential for some gradual development as it moves westward at
15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Brennan
Toronto, Ontario.

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Posted 04 September 2015 - 03:14 PM

It is now 91L at 10N 19W.

============
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles off the west coast
of Africa is expected to move south of the Cape Verde Islands
tonight and Saturday. This system continues to show signs of
organization and has the potential for some development as it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
Toronto, Ontario.

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Posted 05 September 2015 - 05:43 PM

Now TD7 of 2015, doesn't look strong all the way but at least it is more on the westerly track.

---------------------
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

Satellite imagery and ship observations indicate that the
disturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands has become better
organized, and is now Tropical Depression Seven. The convection is
not very deep at this time, but animation of visible images show a
good circulation. In fact, earlier microwave data clearly depict a
mid-level center associated with the developing depression. Based on
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, the
initial intensity has been set at 30 kt. No ASCAT data were
available at the time of this advisory.

The environment appears to be favorable for gradual strengthening
during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, most of the global
models forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt
any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will
weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280
degrees at 12 kt. A moderately strong subtropical ridge is centered
north of the depression. This pattern calls for a continuation of
a general westward track for the next 3 days. After that time,
the ridge is expected to weaken, and the cyclone will likely turn
more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed.
This is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not
acknowledge the existence of a cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.8N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 14.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 15.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 15.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
Toronto, Ontario.

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Posted 06 September 2015 - 03:25 AM

Now TS Grace, the previous storms couldn't survive the VHS in the 35W to 55W area, let's see how long Grace can go on.

===============
TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

Most of the deep convection associated with Grace is located west
and southwest of the estimated center position, consistent with
light-to-moderate easterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by
UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 35 kt
based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Grace
will be moving over warm waters and in a low shear environment for
the next 24 to 36 hours, which should support some strengthening.
After that time, the shear becomes westerly and increases with the
cyclone moving over slightly cooler waters. As a result, much of the
intensity guidance suggests that Grace will weaken later in the
period, with dissipation also possible. The new NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the latest
IVCN intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 280/12. Grace should continue moving
generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a
subtropical ridge for the next several days. The track model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although there is
some variability in forward speed. The new NHC track forecast is
an update of the previous one and lies a little south of the
consensus given that Grace is forecast to be weaker by the end
of the period. This track is close to the latest predictions from
the GFS model and the FSU Superensemble.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 12.8N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 13.3N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 13.6N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 14.1N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 14.8N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 15.3N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Toronto, Ontario.

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