Canadian Weather http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php Wed, 22 May 2013 08:43:58 +0000 10 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/5476-australian-extremes/ Australian daily extremes 12/09/10

Highest max .. 40.1C / 104F .. BRADSHAW, NT.
Lowest max .. -0.2C / 32F .. MT HOTHAM, Vic.
Highest min .. 27.0C / 81F .. TROUGHTON Is, WA.
Lowest min .. -5.1C / 23F .. COOMA, NSW.
Highest Rainfall .. 41.8 mm .. WULUNGURRU, NT.
Highest wind gust .. 115 km/h .. SCOTTS PEAK, Tas]]> Wed, 22 May 2013 08:43:58 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/5476-australian-extremes/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6724-yet-another-winter-storm-approaching/
This is an alert to the potential development of dangerous winter weather conditions late Thursday night in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system is expected to develop well south of Nova Scotia tonight and will intensify on Thursday as it approaches Sable Island from the south. On Thursday night the low will continue to deepen and is expected to approach Cape Breton towards dawn Friday. As the low approaches snow at times heavy is expected to develop late Thursday evening over over much of Northeast Mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton. Those areas could see snowfall amounts possibly exceeding 10 to 15 centimetres by dawn Friday with more snow likely during the morning hours on Friday. Strong northerly winds ahead of the low will also cause blowing snow late Thursday night and into Friday morning over many of those aforementioned regions. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact track of this low with snowfall amounts greatly depending on its final track.]]> Sun, 24 Mar 2013 22:30:17 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6724-yet-another-winter-storm-approaching/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6719-winter-storm-approaching/
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 4:21 PM ADT Sunday 17 March 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Mainland Nova Scotia
=new= Cape Breton
=new= Prince Edward Island.

Another taste of winter is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system will develop north of Cape Hatteras Tuesday morning in a trough stretching from the Great Lakes. The low will slowly move up the Eastern Seaboard and track through New Brunswick on Wednesday.

Precipitation associated with this low will reach Southwestern Nova Scotia Tuesday afternoon as snow. It will slowly spread northward to reach central regions in the evening and Cape Breton and Prince Edward Island by Wednesday morning. A large area of ice pellets is possible with this set up and could persist for several hours. Precipitation will end during the first part of the day Wednesday over Mainland Nova Scotia and later in the day over Cape Breton.

Although it is still very early to discuss amounts, it is possible that some regions may require snowfall warnings at a later time.]]> Wed, 20 Mar 2013 23:21:52 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6719-winter-storm-approaching/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6676-feb-34-snow/
http://www.weatherof...nings/ns_e.html]]> Sat, 02 Feb 2013 12:26:45 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6676-feb-34-snow/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6639-winter-storm/
Warnings
Kings County
4:40 AM AST Saturday 29 December 2012
Winter storm warning for
Kings County upgraded from Winter storm watch

Most of Mainland Nova Scotia is under a winter storm warning with upwards of 25 centimetres of snow and blowing snow expected beginning tonight and continuing Sunday.

This is a warning that dangerous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system currently well south of the Great Lakes will track eastward today and become an intense nor'Easter tonight as it tracks along the coast of Nova Scotia. This storm will bring a large swath of heavy snow to Nova Scotia along with blowing snow in strong northerly winds. 20 to 40 centimetres of snow can be expected for most of Mainland Nova Scotia with the exception of Eastern Nova Scotia which is forecast to change over to rain for several hours on Sunday before changing back to snow. In addition higher than normal water levels with rough pounding surf due to high waves are expected along the Atlantic coast Sunday morning. Storm surge warnings are in effect over Northern Nova Scotia for Antigonish County and the Cape Breton coasts along the Gulf of St Lawrence. High water levels and rough pounding surf due to high waves are expected late Sunday afternoon and in the evening.

A Les Suetes wind warning is in effect for Inverness County - Mabou and north with gust to 90 km/h beginning Sunday morning and ending in the evening]]> Sat, 29 Dec 2012 14:11:25 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6639-winter-storm/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6512-ts-issac/
-----------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING ISAAC
DURING THE NIGHT REPORTED THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD BECAME
DISORGANIZED AFTER 0600 UTC. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER BECAME ELONGATED DURING THIS
TIME....AND THE CENTER IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN FRENCH RADAR DATA
FROM MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KT BASED ON AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. WHILE
THE CENTRAL CORE IS DISORGANIZED...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
STORM IS IMPROVING...AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE OUTER BAND
FORMING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/15...AS IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW MUCH OF THE OBSERVED NORTHWARD NUDGE WAS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF
THE CENTER. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR OF
THE TRACK FORECAST. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF ISAAC ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
DURING THAT TIME. THIS EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR FORECASTS
OF THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF DOES NOT BREAK THE RIDGE...AND THUS
FORECASTS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION NEAR OR SOUTH OF CUBA. THE
CANADIAN AND NOGAPS HAVE A LARGE BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND TURN ISAAC
NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA. THE UKMET HAS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND MOVES THE CYCLONE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE GFS SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA...
BUT FORECASTS ISAAC TO BYPASS THE BREAK AND MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS DECREASED-CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO
LIE NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW
DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST OF ISAAC...AND A LACK OF CONVECTION IN
THIS AREA SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS AIR IS ENTRAINING INTO THE CYCLONE.
OTHERWISE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 48 HR.
AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME ISAAC
SPENDS OVER LAND. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...THEN IS REDUCED A LITTLE BASED ON
INCREASED LAND INTERACTION IN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
NONE OF THE FORECAST POINTS ARE OVER LAND...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA FROM 48-96 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 15.9N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 16.3N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 16.8N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 17.3N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.8N 70.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 19.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 22.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 25.5N 81.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN]]> Wed, 05 Sep 2012 03:41:52 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6512-ts-issac/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6524-ts-leslie/


WOCN31 CWHX 041745
Tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 1:01 PM ADT Tuesday
4 September 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Atlantic provinces.

For tropical storm Leslie.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT Wednesday.

Early discussion regarding tropical storm Leslie and possible
Influence in Eastern Canada.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
The Canadian Hurricane Centre will be monitoring the development of
tropical storm Leslie this week. The storm is expected to move very
slowly and intensify gradually over the next several days.
Computer models are predicting Leslie to only travel 500 kilometres
in 4 days which is basically a person's average speed of walking.
With such a slow speed of travel and the fact that the storm is still
in its organizing stage, there is much (more than usual) uncertainty
in the predicted path/intensity over the next week.

Computer models indicate that Leslie could eventually push through
the large 'Bermuda high' and acellerate toward Eastern Canada with a
range of track scenarios from Maine to offshore Newfoundland.
The middle of these track forecasts is over Newfoundland - but even
that 'average' will likely shift by hundreds of kilometers over time
with each new run of simulations. If Leslie makes it to Eastern
Canada, it would not likely do so until early next week.

We will update this bulletin throughout the week if Leslie continues
to develop and will provide interpretation of the possible scenarios
and degree of predictability.

Visit WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (all in lower
case) for the latest hurricane track map.

END/FOGARTY]]> Tue, 04 Sep 2012 23:47:05 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6524-ts-leslie/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6521-impressive-low-at-15n-20w/ On Aug 29, this low was inland in Africa near 18N 12W, it moved WSW to the Ocean rapidly during the day - not an Invest area yet as of Aug 30 11pm. Fri, 31 Aug 2012 03:47:34 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6521-impressive-low-at-15n-20w/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6515-low-near-15n-20w/
-----------------------------

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.]]> Fri, 31 Aug 2012 03:41:13 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6515-low-near-15n-20w/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6513-td10/
----------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
1100 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE BOTH 2.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30KT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH THE
DEPRESSION BECOMES INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTERACTIONS WITH EITHER WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND A POSSIBLE HALT IN
INTENSIFICATION. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEARLY IN TANDEM WITH A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT TURNS
MORE QUICKLY. THE HWRF SHOWS A SHALLOWER VORTEX THAT MOVES ON A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 12.4N 36.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.3N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.2N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.2N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 18.5N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 21.8N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 26.0N 64.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY]]> Wed, 22 Aug 2012 15:29:25 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6513-td10/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6510-nhc-website/ Wed, 22 Aug 2012 15:21:45 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6510-nhc-website/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6511-nhc-website/ Wed, 22 Aug 2012 11:16:55 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6511-nhc-website/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6497-td7/ The forecast track is similar to that of Ernesto without much intensification as the storm enters Eastern Carribean Sea from the Atlantic Ocean.
=============================


TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO
BANDING FEATURES APPARENT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
30 KT. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY
41041 OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER LOOK AT THE
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT FOR NOW...THE
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION ALWAYS SEEMS TO HAVE SOME
NEGATIVE FACTORS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS NEAR THE CIRCULATION
INITIALLY...WHICH IS PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACKLUSTER
CONVECTION. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER WARMER WATERS...THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD RISE...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THIS
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO FURTHER INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SHOWING ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THE DAY 4 AND 5 PREDICTIONS HAVE BEEN REDUCED GIVEN THE LIKELY
PERSISTENCE OF THE SHEAR AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NON-DEVELOPMENT
TREND IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 270/17. THIS GENERAL TRACK AND
SPEED IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PERSISTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST COURSE IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE
NEW FORECAST...HOWEVER...STAYS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...
SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A SLOW AND POLEWARD BIAS
WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS IN THIS AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 13.7N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 13.6N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 13.6N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 13.7N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 14.1N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 14.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 16.0N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 17.0N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE]]> Tue, 14 Aug 2012 15:22:14 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6497-td7/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6487-ts-ernesto/


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER
ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO
GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE]]> Sun, 12 Aug 2012 03:32:12 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6487-ts-ernesto/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6471-tornado-watch/ Thu, 19 Jul 2012 11:22:53 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6471-tornado-watch/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6465-rain/
JW]]> Mon, 16 Jul 2012 23:45:35 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6465-rain/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6442-invest-area-96l/ On Tuesday afternoon it was a low in a weakening frontal system covering southern tip of Gulf of Mexico and gradually gained tropical characteristics. It became a 70% chance of tropical formation and may not have much time to develop as it moves slowly northward. Wed, 27 Jun 2012 00:12:12 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6442-invest-area-96l/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6439-ts-chris-now-hurricane-chris/
000
WTNT43 KNHC 192055
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
AND COVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM
TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS ALSO SHOW
THE SYSTEM AS A SYMMETRIC WARM CORE...ALBEIT SHALLOW...SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT IS BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA
AND A SHIP THAT REPORTED 35-KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/7. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF
LOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO HOW SHARP THE CYCLONE
TURNS NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
CHRIS TRAVERSES THE MARGINALLY WARM WATERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS IN
36-48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW STRENGTHENING AS
A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN 3 TO 4
DAYS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

ONLY TWICE BEFORE...IN 1887 AND 1959...HAS THE THIRD STORM OF THE
SEASON FORMED EARLIER THAN THIS DATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 39.3N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 39.2N 54.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 39.5N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 40.9N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 43.3N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 45.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$
FORECASTER BROWN]]> Thu, 21 Jun 2012 15:10:20 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6439-ts-chris-now-hurricane-chris/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6410-naming-storms/ I noticed today that they gave the name Beryl to a SUBtropical storm. At what point does it earn a name? Sun, 27 May 2012 22:30:08 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6410-naming-storms/ http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6408-subtropical-storm-beryl/ SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...BERYL MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 75.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN]]> Sat, 26 May 2012 11:22:58 +0000 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/index.php?/topic/6408-subtropical-storm-beryl/