http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/ Sat, 17 May 2008 07:59:31 -0400 MyBB http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4424 Sat, 17 May 2008 07:09:54 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4424 Woodstock, NB

Partly sunny
Temp: 8.1° C
Wind: NNE 2 km/h
Barometer: 998.9 mb, steady
Dew Point: 4.4° C
Humidity: 77%

Overnight Low: 6.5° C]]> Woodstock, NB

Partly sunny
Temp: 8.1° C
Wind: NNE 2 km/h
Barometer: 998.9 mb, steady
Dew Point: 4.4° C
Humidity: 77%

Overnight Low: 6.5° C]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4423 Sat, 17 May 2008 00:48:14 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4423 s -2 to -4 At this Time if storms do fire and can use that shear they will most likely be severe otherwise If storms can'nt get a hold of the Instability fast enough Thundershowers will be the only likely result. As the Instability will be moving through the area quickly with a cold front. The worse case result would be for a Isolated Large hail Threat and Maybe a very very small Isolated Tornado Threat but again as it looks right now there is not a good chance of that happening. I would give it about a 4% chance of a Isolated Tornado.]]> s -2 to -4 At this Time if storms do fire and can use that shear they will most likely be severe otherwise If storms can'nt get a hold of the Instability fast enough Thundershowers will be the only likely result. As the Instability will be moving through the area quickly with a cold front. The worse case result would be for a Isolated Large hail Threat and Maybe a very very small Isolated Tornado Threat but again as it looks right now there is not a good chance of that happening. I would give it about a 4% chance of a Isolated Tornado.]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4421 Fri, 16 May 2008 05:48:43 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4421 Woodstock, NB

Partly cloudy
Temp: 8.7° C
Wind: NW 6 km/h Gust: 12 km/h
Barometer: 1009.5 mb, steady
Dew Point: 5.7° C
Humidity: 82%]]> Woodstock, NB

Partly cloudy
Temp: 8.7° C
Wind: NW 6 km/h Gust: 12 km/h
Barometer: 1009.5 mb, steady
Dew Point: 5.7° C
Humidity: 82%]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4420 Thu, 15 May 2008 09:59:05 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4420
]]>
]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4419 Thu, 15 May 2008 05:49:54 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4419 Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 3.3° C
Wind: Calm
Barometer: 1016.6 mb, steady
Dew Point: -2.3° C
Humidity: 67%

Overnight Low: 2.5° C]]> Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 3.3° C
Wind: Calm
Barometer: 1016.6 mb, steady
Dew Point: -2.3° C
Humidity: 67%

Overnight Low: 2.5° C]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4418 Wed, 14 May 2008 22:35:30 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4418 I especially like the last sentence. I think they seen those little nitrogen balls form the planet Guiness.
Actually, I think I've seen some myself.....


U.K. releases secret files on reported UFO sightings


LONDON -- The men were air traffic controllers. Experienced, calm professionals. Nobody was drinking. But they were so worried about losing their jobs that they demanded their names be kept off the official report.

No one, they knew, would believe their claim that an unidentified flying object landed at the airport they were overseeing in the east of England, touched down briefly, then took off again at tremendous speed. Yet that's what they reported happened at 4 p.m. on April 19, 1984.

The incident is one of hundreds of reported sightings contained in more than 1,000 pages of formerly secret UFO documents being released Wednesday by Britain's National Archives. It is one of the few that was never explained.

The air traffic controllers' "Report of Unusual Aerial Phenomenon'' was filed from an unspecified small airport near the eastern coast of England.

The men, each with more than eight years on the job, described how they were helping guide a small plane to a landing on runway 22 when they were distracted by a brightly lit object approaching a different runway without clearance.

"Everyone became aware that the object was unidentified,'' their report said. "SATCO (code name for a controller with 14 years experience) reports that the object came in 'at speed,' made a touch and go on runway 27, then departed at 'terrific speed' in a 'near vertical' climb.''

The incident is one of the more credible in the newly public files because it was reported by air traffic controllers, said David Clarke, a UFO expert who worked with the National Archives on the document release.

"They were absolutely astonished,'' he said. "It was a bright, circular object, flashing different colours, and after it touched down it disappeared at fantastic speed. The report comes from very qualified people, and it's one of the few that remained unexplained.''

But while there are some unexplained cases in the papers, there is no reported instance in which the Ministry of Defence found any evidence of alien activity or alien spacecraft, said Clarke, who nonetheless expects conspiracy theories about a UFO cover-up by the British defence establishment to persist.

"The Ministry of Defence doesn't have any evidence that our defences were breached by alien craft,'' Clarke said. "They never found one, no bits of one. That's all we can say.''

Clarke said the released documents, dealing with the late 1970s and early 1980s, are the first batch in a series that will be made public in the next few years.

The National Archives is releasing the files because of numerous freedom of information requests seeking information about the government's UFO reports. Officials said that names of many individuals had been blacked out to protect their privacy and that the entire files had been reviewed to make sure their release did not compromise national security.

Ministry of Defence officials indicate in the files that UFO reports were only investigated to make sure no enemy aircraft had illegally entered British airspace. This was crucial during the Cold War when Russian planes posed a threat.

Officials said they did not try to solve UFO riddles once an enemy attack had been ruled out.

The vast majority of UFO reports come from members of the public who see strange things in the sky and jump to the conclusion that a UFO is involved even though there are logical explanations for what they observe, experts said.

"The most common things are aircraft lights, bright stars and planets, satellites, meteors, airships and things like that,'' said Nick Pope, another UFO expert who helped the Ministry of Defence investigate the phenomenon.

That was the case when a number of people leaving a Tunbridge Wells pub one night reported seeing a strange craft "with red and green'' lights, according to the released documents.

Asked by police where the object seemed to be travelling, the pub crawlers said it appeared to be heading for London's Gatwick Airport. It didn't take a scientist to figure out it was a commercial plane making a routine approach.


Link]]> I especially like the last sentence. I think they seen those little nitrogen balls form the planet Guiness.
Actually, I think I've seen some myself.....


U.K. releases secret files on reported UFO sightings


LONDON -- The men were air traffic controllers. Experienced, calm professionals. Nobody was drinking. But they were so worried about losing their jobs that they demanded their names be kept off the official report.

No one, they knew, would believe their claim that an unidentified flying object landed at the airport they were overseeing in the east of England, touched down briefly, then took off again at tremendous speed. Yet that's what they reported happened at 4 p.m. on April 19, 1984.

The incident is one of hundreds of reported sightings contained in more than 1,000 pages of formerly secret UFO documents being released Wednesday by Britain's National Archives. It is one of the few that was never explained.

The air traffic controllers' "Report of Unusual Aerial Phenomenon'' was filed from an unspecified small airport near the eastern coast of England.

The men, each with more than eight years on the job, described how they were helping guide a small plane to a landing on runway 22 when they were distracted by a brightly lit object approaching a different runway without clearance.

"Everyone became aware that the object was unidentified,'' their report said. "SATCO (code name for a controller with 14 years experience) reports that the object came in 'at speed,' made a touch and go on runway 27, then departed at 'terrific speed' in a 'near vertical' climb.''

The incident is one of the more credible in the newly public files because it was reported by air traffic controllers, said David Clarke, a UFO expert who worked with the National Archives on the document release.

"They were absolutely astonished,'' he said. "It was a bright, circular object, flashing different colours, and after it touched down it disappeared at fantastic speed. The report comes from very qualified people, and it's one of the few that remained unexplained.''

But while there are some unexplained cases in the papers, there is no reported instance in which the Ministry of Defence found any evidence of alien activity or alien spacecraft, said Clarke, who nonetheless expects conspiracy theories about a UFO cover-up by the British defence establishment to persist.

"The Ministry of Defence doesn't have any evidence that our defences were breached by alien craft,'' Clarke said. "They never found one, no bits of one. That's all we can say.''

Clarke said the released documents, dealing with the late 1970s and early 1980s, are the first batch in a series that will be made public in the next few years.

The National Archives is releasing the files because of numerous freedom of information requests seeking information about the government's UFO reports. Officials said that names of many individuals had been blacked out to protect their privacy and that the entire files had been reviewed to make sure their release did not compromise national security.

Ministry of Defence officials indicate in the files that UFO reports were only investigated to make sure no enemy aircraft had illegally entered British airspace. This was crucial during the Cold War when Russian planes posed a threat.

Officials said they did not try to solve UFO riddles once an enemy attack had been ruled out.

The vast majority of UFO reports come from members of the public who see strange things in the sky and jump to the conclusion that a UFO is involved even though there are logical explanations for what they observe, experts said.

"The most common things are aircraft lights, bright stars and planets, satellites, meteors, airships and things like that,'' said Nick Pope, another UFO expert who helped the Ministry of Defence investigate the phenomenon.

That was the case when a number of people leaving a Tunbridge Wells pub one night reported seeing a strange craft "with red and green'' lights, according to the released documents.

Asked by police where the object seemed to be travelling, the pub crawlers said it appeared to be heading for London's Gatwick Airport. It didn't take a scientist to figure out it was a commercial plane making a routine approach.


Link]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4417 Wed, 14 May 2008 08:34:02 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4417
I was thinking that over on my walk to school yesterday. It's a long walk, and frequently I have to rush. I really feel it this time of year when the sun beats down and it gets really hot. It really breaks a sweat.

For me, the perfect weather this time of year is about 6-10 degrees in the morning, with a high maximum of maybe 20. Clear but a coolish breeze in the air. (or a moderate wind)

Once it gets above 20 I have to change my activities because I just cant take the heat.

But that's just me. What about you!?]]>
I was thinking that over on my walk to school yesterday. It's a long walk, and frequently I have to rush. I really feel it this time of year when the sun beats down and it gets really hot. It really breaks a sweat.

For me, the perfect weather this time of year is about 6-10 degrees in the morning, with a high maximum of maybe 20. Clear but a coolish breeze in the air. (or a moderate wind)

Once it gets above 20 I have to change my activities because I just cant take the heat.

But that's just me. What about you!?]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4416 Wed, 14 May 2008 05:51:48 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4416 Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 2.1° C
Wind: Calm
Barometer: 1020.1 mb, rising slowly
Dew Point: -0.5° C
Humidity: 83%]]> Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 2.1° C
Wind: Calm
Barometer: 1020.1 mb, rising slowly
Dew Point: -0.5° C
Humidity: 83%]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4415 Tue, 13 May 2008 19:10:11 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4415


NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander, which launched last August, will finally reach the Red Planet later this month but scientists remain nervous about the extremely complicated mission.

Phoenix is scheduled to enter the top of the Martian atmosphere at a speed of nearly 21,000 km/h on May 25.

In the ensuing seven minutes, the spacecraft will have to complete a challenging sequence of events to slow down before it lands.

At a NASA press conference in Washington Tuesday, Phoenix project manager Barry Goldstein described the landing as "seven minutes of terror."

Phoenix will need to slow to about eight km/h before its three legs reach the ground.

"This is not a trip to grandma's house. Putting a spacecraft safely on Mars is hard and risky," Ed Weiler, associate administrator for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, said Tuesday in a press release. "Internationally, fewer than half the attempts have succeeded."

The biggest risk comes from large rocks on the surface of Mars which could spoil the landing or prevent the solar panels from being able to open.

However, images from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter have helped scientists select a low-risk landing site.

"We have blanketed nearly the entire landing area with HiRISE (High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment) images," Ray Arvidson, chairman of the Phoenix landing-site working group, said Tuesday.

"This is one of the least rocky areas on all of Mars and we are confident that rocks will not detrimentally impact the ability of Phoenix to land safely."

Phoenix will land farther north on Mars than any previous mission. It will then use a 7.7-foot arm to scoop up samples of underground ice and soil lying above the ice.

Laboratory instruments onboard Phoenix will then analyze the samples.

A Canadian-made weather station and cameras will also be used to gain insight about the environment around the landing site.

( I'm thinking there may be some interesting weather reports coming back from that particular weather station )


"The Phoenix mission not only studies the northern permafrost region, but takes the next step in Mars exploration by determining whether this region, which may encompass as much as 25 per cent of the Martian surface, is habitable," Peter Smith, Phoenix's principal investigator, said Tuesday.

One of the researchers' goals is to assess whether conditions at the site have ever been favourable for microbial life.

The composition and texture of soil above the ice could provide clues as to whether the ice ever melts in response to long-term climate cycles.

Scientists will also be looking at scooped-up samples to see if they contain carbon-based chemicals -- potential building blocks and food for life.

Link]]>


NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander, which launched last August, will finally reach the Red Planet later this month but scientists remain nervous about the extremely complicated mission.

Phoenix is scheduled to enter the top of the Martian atmosphere at a speed of nearly 21,000 km/h on May 25.

In the ensuing seven minutes, the spacecraft will have to complete a challenging sequence of events to slow down before it lands.

At a NASA press conference in Washington Tuesday, Phoenix project manager Barry Goldstein described the landing as "seven minutes of terror."

Phoenix will need to slow to about eight km/h before its three legs reach the ground.

"This is not a trip to grandma's house. Putting a spacecraft safely on Mars is hard and risky," Ed Weiler, associate administrator for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, said Tuesday in a press release. "Internationally, fewer than half the attempts have succeeded."

The biggest risk comes from large rocks on the surface of Mars which could spoil the landing or prevent the solar panels from being able to open.

However, images from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter have helped scientists select a low-risk landing site.

"We have blanketed nearly the entire landing area with HiRISE (High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment) images," Ray Arvidson, chairman of the Phoenix landing-site working group, said Tuesday.

"This is one of the least rocky areas on all of Mars and we are confident that rocks will not detrimentally impact the ability of Phoenix to land safely."

Phoenix will land farther north on Mars than any previous mission. It will then use a 7.7-foot arm to scoop up samples of underground ice and soil lying above the ice.

Laboratory instruments onboard Phoenix will then analyze the samples.

A Canadian-made weather station and cameras will also be used to gain insight about the environment around the landing site.

( I'm thinking there may be some interesting weather reports coming back from that particular weather station )


"The Phoenix mission not only studies the northern permafrost region, but takes the next step in Mars exploration by determining whether this region, which may encompass as much as 25 per cent of the Martian surface, is habitable," Peter Smith, Phoenix's principal investigator, said Tuesday.

One of the researchers' goals is to assess whether conditions at the site have ever been favourable for microbial life.

The composition and texture of soil above the ice could provide clues as to whether the ice ever melts in response to long-term climate cycles.

Scientists will also be looking at scooped-up samples to see if they contain carbon-based chemicals -- potential building blocks and food for life.

Link]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4414 Tue, 13 May 2008 05:49:25 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4414 Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 1.4° C
Wind: N 5 km/h
Barometer: 1018.0 mb, rising slowly
Dew Point: -1.5° C
Humidity: 81%]]> Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 1.4° C
Wind: N 5 km/h
Barometer: 1018.0 mb, rising slowly
Dew Point: -1.5° C
Humidity: 81%]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4413 Mon, 12 May 2008 09:48:34 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4413
Sheila]]>
Sheila]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4412 Mon, 12 May 2008 08:44:00 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4412
Time: Monday, May 12, 2008 at 06:28:00 UTC
Magnitude:7.8
Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
Near Locations:
90 km from Chengdu, Sichuan, China
150 km from Mianyang, Sichuan, China
360 km from Chongqing, Chongqing, China
1545 km from BEIJING, Beijing, China

Many quite strong after shocks


Mag. Times UTC
5.4 2008/05/12 07:34:43
5.7 2008/05/12 06:54:18
6.0 2008/05/12 06:43:15
7.8 2008/05/12 06:28:01
4.9 2008/05/12 09:23:35
5.1 2008/05/12 09:07:01
5.0 2008/05/12 08:47:25
4.9 2008/05/12 08:26:13
5.2 2008/05/12 08:21:41
5.2 2008/05/12 08:10:59
5.8 2008/05/12 11:11:02
5.1 2008/05/12 10:23:40
5.0 2008/05/12 09:52:13
5.5 2008/05/12 09:42:25

There has been death and structural damage.
A large quake at a very shallow depth, a very dangerous situation.

I will post a 24 seismic chart, not from China but from Greenland.
Note, how the Greenland machine recorded the China event.
Sort of an indication the tremendous amount of energy in something like this to show up on a machine half a world away.

Data from station SFJD (Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland)]]>
Time: Monday, May 12, 2008 at 06:28:00 UTC
Magnitude:7.8
Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
Near Locations:
90 km from Chengdu, Sichuan, China
150 km from Mianyang, Sichuan, China
360 km from Chongqing, Chongqing, China
1545 km from BEIJING, Beijing, China

Many quite strong after shocks


Mag. Times UTC
5.4 2008/05/12 07:34:43
5.7 2008/05/12 06:54:18
6.0 2008/05/12 06:43:15
7.8 2008/05/12 06:28:01
4.9 2008/05/12 09:23:35
5.1 2008/05/12 09:07:01
5.0 2008/05/12 08:47:25
4.9 2008/05/12 08:26:13
5.2 2008/05/12 08:21:41
5.2 2008/05/12 08:10:59
5.8 2008/05/12 11:11:02
5.1 2008/05/12 10:23:40
5.0 2008/05/12 09:52:13
5.5 2008/05/12 09:42:25

There has been death and structural damage.
A large quake at a very shallow depth, a very dangerous situation.

I will post a 24 seismic chart, not from China but from Greenland.
Note, how the Greenland machine recorded the China event.
Sort of an indication the tremendous amount of energy in something like this to show up on a machine half a world away.

Data from station SFJD (Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland)]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4411 Mon, 12 May 2008 05:58:50 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4411 Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 0.7° C
Wind: NNE 2 km/h
Barometer: 1013.7 mb, falling slowly
Dew Point: -1.9° C
Humidity: 83%
Overnight Low: 0.0° C]]> Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 0.7° C
Wind: NNE 2 km/h
Barometer: 1013.7 mb, falling slowly
Dew Point: -1.9° C
Humidity: 83%
Overnight Low: 0.0° C]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4410 Sun, 11 May 2008 20:22:55 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4410
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
CA Central Valley....NV....UT....NW CO....WY....NE Panhandle

STRONG WINDS
(Pressure Gradient Derived)
Coastal VA, MD, DE, NJ, LI NY


HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

Scattered Locations In
S MB....S SK....MT
(QPF 1 - 2"; Some Snow, Sleet Likely)

Scattered Locations In
N, C Coastal BC
(QPF 1 - 2")

Scattered Locations In
WV....VA....DC....MD....DE....NJ....S NY....E PA
(QPF 1 - 4")


EXCESSIVE HEAT OUTLOOK
(potential for maximum temperature to exceed 95 deg F within the next 24 hours)

Scattered Locations In
SE AZ....NM....W, C TX....W OK....W KS....E CO

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK
(Through The Next 72 Hours)



Severe Weather Threat Briefly Quiets Down....




This being one of the most convectively active springs on record, it would be wise not to get too comfortable to the spell of quiet now settling over the midsection of the U.S. With 100 fatalities since January 1 and a barrage of tornadoes occurring from the central and lower Great Plains through much of the Old South this weekend, residents of what some term "the new Tornado Alley" have about 48 hours before another twister threat emerges.

With a still-active subtropical jet stream re-entering the picture over Baja California, and yet another storm complex dropping southeastward toward the Intermountain Region, moisture and surface convergence will start to increase over the Great Plains on Monday. By Tuesday, very unstable Lifted Index values are forecast from Texas into the middle Missouri Valley. The energy along the West Coast will dig into a closed low near the "Four Corners", linking in a trough with a deep cPk vortex in the vicinity of Hudson Bay. Against a heat ridge that relocates to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the resulting temperature gradient that forms should be accompanied by convective clusters and discreet HP supercell thunderstorms in a belt that roughly parallels Interstate 35 from San Antonio TX to Ames IA on the afternoon and evening of May 13.

Since the subtropical high will be slow to retreat and repeated mesoscale impulses will rotate out of the low and trough, much of Texas and Louisiana could be set up for a combined severe weather and excessive rainfall threat on Wednesday. While the western Gulf Coast has been in dire need of rainfall lately, a case can be made for as much as 6 inches of rain along a Victoria TX to Starkville MS arc on Day 3.

....While The Mid-Atlantic, New England Get A Raw Reminder Of Winter


Proving the point that a Nor'easter can occur at any time of the year, the deep 500MB low over the Ohio Valley should congeal into a very strong vertical circulation by Monday afternoon. The slow passage and gradient of the low against a high over Quebec will allow for gale force winds, heavy stratiform rains, and coastal flooding in most of the Mid-Atlantic shoreline. Temperatures will also be held down because of the maritime flow and cloud cover, with only brief improvement expected at midweek before a new surge of cold air arrives from Canada.

First Hot Spell Of The Season Along The West Coast

Heat over Mexico is making a move north and west, and by Wednesday record warmth will occupy much of the terrain from W TX into CA and northward to WA. Building high pressure along and east of the Continental Divide will aid in the warming process, setting up a downslope flow against a lingering low west of Baja California. The high heat should last perhaps two or three days before the highly amplified heat ridge forming along the West Coast begins to break down due to incursion from the polar westerlies over the northern Pacific Ocean.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(Four To Ten Days From Now)

Typhoon Rammasun Will Have Eventual Impacts On North American Weather


Typhoon Rammasun will skim the eastern shoreline of the main Japanese Islands during the following 24 hours before turning extratropical and phasing with a shortwave in the polar westerlies. Since the jet stream continues to have an active linkage and interaction with the tropics, downstream amplification of the 500MB flow is virtually certain to continue. The "Rammasun Low" will park just below the Aleutian Islands and pump up an incredible thumb-projection ridge that should enable both extreme heat along the West Coast and record cold through the Midwest and Northeast. This general trend in apparent weather should continue through at least May 21.

Highly Amplified 500MB Longwave Pattern Taking Shape

Talking about a cPk vortex in May would be normal is the site of the gyre were near the North Pole. But in this negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, with extensive ridging along the western shoreline of North America matching up with a positive height anomalies over the Northwest Territories, Greenland, and the lower Sargasso Sea, the upper low in question will be situated over southern Ontario and Quebec! This position guarantees the visit of very chilly air to the Midwest and Northeast, with the possibility of record lows as far south as the Tennessee Valley and the NC Piedmont during the medium range.

Extreme Heat Visits The West....

The peak of the western U.S. hot spell will be Friday and Saturday, when a few locations across interior WA and OR could surpass 100 deg F. As the westerlies start to crack the ridge axis early next week, some of the hotter readings will move toward the central and southern Great Plains, turning a brief cool trend in TX and OK to searing heat.

....While Record Cold Possible In Eastern Half Of Nation

As stated above, the synoptic configuration is one that favors drainage of cold air from Canada into the U.S. Those communities getting the brunt of the cool air while under fair skies and light winds may see frost formation. By next Sunday, agricultural concerns will run rampant over the Mid-South and much of the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

Cold Air, Severe Weather Still A Concern....

The ECMWF, GGEM, and GFS model suites are indicating a prolonged -AO phase which could last through the end of the month. So it seems likely that the Memorial Day weekend will be a chilly one across the Midwest and Northeast. The jet stream may edge a bit to the north, taking the main storm track along a line from WY into PA and NJ. There are no less than three impulses on view in model forecasts, so while the convective risks may migrate northward (NE and KS into OH and KY), the risk of tornadoes, hail, and high winds will still be high in the Corn Belt and perhaps parts of the Mid-South later this month.

....But Warmth Should Make A Comeback Down South

Ridging should be more prominent across Texas and the Deep South during the 11-15 day time frame, and the latest GGEM and ECMWF ensemble depictions are even more bullish than the GFS model suite on a swath of heat from TX into the Southeast. The active storm track along 45 N Latitude should aid in the warming, dragging a swath of cTw values out of Mexico into the High Plains beginning May 22. So whereas locations like Chicago IL and New York NY are using gas for heating, communities such as Dallas TX and Birmingham AL will likely go to the air conditioning unit to stay cool.


Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, May 11, 2008 at 7:05 P.M. CT

Disclaimer:

The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2008 by Larry Cosgrove

All rights reserved.

This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.]]>
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
CA Central Valley....NV....UT....NW CO....WY....NE Panhandle

STRONG WINDS
(Pressure Gradient Derived)
Coastal VA, MD, DE, NJ, LI NY


HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

Scattered Locations In
S MB....S SK....MT
(QPF 1 - 2"; Some Snow, Sleet Likely)

Scattered Locations In
N, C Coastal BC
(QPF 1 - 2")

Scattered Locations In
WV....VA....DC....MD....DE....NJ....S NY....E PA
(QPF 1 - 4")


EXCESSIVE HEAT OUTLOOK
(potential for maximum temperature to exceed 95 deg F within the next 24 hours)

Scattered Locations In
SE AZ....NM....W, C TX....W OK....W KS....E CO

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK
(Through The Next 72 Hours)



Severe Weather Threat Briefly Quiets Down....




This being one of the most convectively active springs on record, it would be wise not to get too comfortable to the spell of quiet now settling over the midsection of the U.S. With 100 fatalities since January 1 and a barrage of tornadoes occurring from the central and lower Great Plains through much of the Old South this weekend, residents of what some term "the new Tornado Alley" have about 48 hours before another twister threat emerges.

With a still-active subtropical jet stream re-entering the picture over Baja California, and yet another storm complex dropping southeastward toward the Intermountain Region, moisture and surface convergence will start to increase over the Great Plains on Monday. By Tuesday, very unstable Lifted Index values are forecast from Texas into the middle Missouri Valley. The energy along the West Coast will dig into a closed low near the "Four Corners", linking in a trough with a deep cPk vortex in the vicinity of Hudson Bay. Against a heat ridge that relocates to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the resulting temperature gradient that forms should be accompanied by convective clusters and discreet HP supercell thunderstorms in a belt that roughly parallels Interstate 35 from San Antonio TX to Ames IA on the afternoon and evening of May 13.

Since the subtropical high will be slow to retreat and repeated mesoscale impulses will rotate out of the low and trough, much of Texas and Louisiana could be set up for a combined severe weather and excessive rainfall threat on Wednesday. While the western Gulf Coast has been in dire need of rainfall lately, a case can be made for as much as 6 inches of rain along a Victoria TX to Starkville MS arc on Day 3.

....While The Mid-Atlantic, New England Get A Raw Reminder Of Winter


Proving the point that a Nor'easter can occur at any time of the year, the deep 500MB low over the Ohio Valley should congeal into a very strong vertical circulation by Monday afternoon. The slow passage and gradient of the low against a high over Quebec will allow for gale force winds, heavy stratiform rains, and coastal flooding in most of the Mid-Atlantic shoreline. Temperatures will also be held down because of the maritime flow and cloud cover, with only brief improvement expected at midweek before a new surge of cold air arrives from Canada.

First Hot Spell Of The Season Along The West Coast

Heat over Mexico is making a move north and west, and by Wednesday record warmth will occupy much of the terrain from W TX into CA and northward to WA. Building high pressure along and east of the Continental Divide will aid in the warming process, setting up a downslope flow against a lingering low west of Baja California. The high heat should last perhaps two or three days before the highly amplified heat ridge forming along the West Coast begins to break down due to incursion from the polar westerlies over the northern Pacific Ocean.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(Four To Ten Days From Now)

Typhoon Rammasun Will Have Eventual Impacts On North American Weather


Typhoon Rammasun will skim the eastern shoreline of the main Japanese Islands during the following 24 hours before turning extratropical and phasing with a shortwave in the polar westerlies. Since the jet stream continues to have an active linkage and interaction with the tropics, downstream amplification of the 500MB flow is virtually certain to continue. The "Rammasun Low" will park just below the Aleutian Islands and pump up an incredible thumb-projection ridge that should enable both extreme heat along the West Coast and record cold through the Midwest and Northeast. This general trend in apparent weather should continue through at least May 21.

Highly Amplified 500MB Longwave Pattern Taking Shape

Talking about a cPk vortex in May would be normal is the site of the gyre were near the North Pole. But in this negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, with extensive ridging along the western shoreline of North America matching up with a positive height anomalies over the Northwest Territories, Greenland, and the lower Sargasso Sea, the upper low in question will be situated over southern Ontario and Quebec! This position guarantees the visit of very chilly air to the Midwest and Northeast, with the possibility of record lows as far south as the Tennessee Valley and the NC Piedmont during the medium range.

Extreme Heat Visits The West....

The peak of the western U.S. hot spell will be Friday and Saturday, when a few locations across interior WA and OR could surpass 100 deg F. As the westerlies start to crack the ridge axis early next week, some of the hotter readings will move toward the central and southern Great Plains, turning a brief cool trend in TX and OK to searing heat.

....While Record Cold Possible In Eastern Half Of Nation

As stated above, the synoptic configuration is one that favors drainage of cold air from Canada into the U.S. Those communities getting the brunt of the cool air while under fair skies and light winds may see frost formation. By next Sunday, agricultural concerns will run rampant over the Mid-South and much of the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

Cold Air, Severe Weather Still A Concern....

The ECMWF, GGEM, and GFS model suites are indicating a prolonged -AO phase which could last through the end of the month. So it seems likely that the Memorial Day weekend will be a chilly one across the Midwest and Northeast. The jet stream may edge a bit to the north, taking the main storm track along a line from WY into PA and NJ. There are no less than three impulses on view in model forecasts, so while the convective risks may migrate northward (NE and KS into OH and KY), the risk of tornadoes, hail, and high winds will still be high in the Corn Belt and perhaps parts of the Mid-South later this month.

....But Warmth Should Make A Comeback Down South

Ridging should be more prominent across Texas and the Deep South during the 11-15 day time frame, and the latest GGEM and ECMWF ensemble depictions are even more bullish than the GFS model suite on a swath of heat from TX into the Southeast. The active storm track along 45 N Latitude should aid in the warming, dragging a swath of cTw values out of Mexico into the High Plains beginning May 22. So whereas locations like Chicago IL and New York NY are using gas for heating, communities such as Dallas TX and Birmingham AL will likely go to the air conditioning unit to stay cool.


Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, May 11, 2008 at 7:05 P.M. CT

Disclaimer:

The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2008 by Larry Cosgrove

All rights reserved.

This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4409 Sun, 11 May 2008 20:22:05 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4409
TTFN
Sheila akaJW]]>
TTFN
Sheila akaJW]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4408 Sun, 11 May 2008 10:05:09 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4408
Sheila
akaJW]]>
Sheila
akaJW]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4407 Sun, 11 May 2008 06:13:12 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4407 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4406 Sun, 11 May 2008 05:59:43 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4406 Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 1.4° C
Wind: NNE 8 km/h Gust: 18 km/h
Barometer: 1014.5 mb, rising
Dew Point: -1.0° C
Humidity: 84%]]> Woodstock, NB

Sunny
Temp: 1.4° C
Wind: NNE 8 km/h Gust: 18 km/h
Barometer: 1014.5 mb, rising
Dew Point: -1.0° C
Humidity: 84%]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4405 Sat, 10 May 2008 05:56:27 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4405 Woodstock, NB

Cloudy
Temp: 3.5° C
Wind: NE 6 km/h Gust: 10 km/h
Barometer: 1011.2 mb, steady
Dew Point: 1.4° C
Humidity: 86%
Overnight Low: 2.0° C]]> Woodstock, NB

Cloudy
Temp: 3.5° C
Wind: NE 6 km/h Gust: 10 km/h
Barometer: 1011.2 mb, steady
Dew Point: 1.4° C
Humidity: 86%
Overnight Low: 2.0° C]]> http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4404 Fri, 09 May 2008 21:31:38 -0400 http://www.canadianweather.org/forums/showthread.php?tid=4404
Another more intense vertically stacked low develops early next week, with some suggestions it may have an impact along the south shore and eastern NS. With high pressure to the north and north west, this would likely keep the storm to the south, but we`re talking three or four days and lots of time for changes. With such a block in place, the current pattern could be very slow moving.

One thing is almost for sure, with the progged longwave pattern for the next 7 days, all the main models show cooler than normal temperatures prevailing through the maritimes provinces, especially the further east. Spring is currently on hold!!!!]]>
Another more intense vertically stacked low develops early next week, with some suggestions it may have an impact along the south shore and eastern NS. With high pressure to the north and north west, this would likely keep the storm to the south, but we`re talking three or four days and lots of time for changes. With such a block in place, the current pattern could be very slow moving.

One thing is almost for sure, with the progged longwave pattern for the next 7 days, all the main models show cooler than normal temperatures prevailing through the maritimes provinces, especially the further east. Spring is currently on hold!!!!]]>